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Posts for manchester



On The Threshold: Where is the UK property market heading in 2019?

By Alessandro Pasetti, 21 December

2019 is just around the corner, and there are signs it could be another decent year in terms of capital appreciation for real estate in Britain, if you listen to the experts, who in recent weeks have downplayed political and economic uncertainty in terms of growth prospects. The mid-term outlook remains encouraging, based on several projections.

According to market specialist Savills, house prices in the UK are set to rise broadly in line with income power over the next five years, “but the traditional north-south divide will turn on its head”, as one should expect. Between 2019 and 2023, prices are projected to rise by 14.8% across the country, ranging from 21.6% in the North West to single digit growth in London, the South and East.

These forecasts are consistent with data from Zoopla, which says that despite Brexit-related uncertainty, “Brits are staying positive when it comes to property” – with 55% expecting house prices to rise in the next 12 to 18 months. According to its State of the Property Nation report, consumer confidence in house prices is up from 44% in 2016, with most people expecting single digit price rises, although real estate agents are more cautious.

Meanwhile, Stephanie McMahon, head of research at Strutt & Parker, recently talked of “forecast for UK growth at 2.5% for 2019 – with the 5-year forecast from 2018 to 2022 standing at 18%.”

Total transactions for England and Wales in 2018 were flat, and similar trends are likely to persist next year, according to McMahon, with the number of registered buyers and viewing numbers gradually up, although Prime Central London is a rather different matter, with volumes continuing to be low by historic standards. As far as the number of transactions is concerned, a fall of “6.9% since the Brexit vote to 1.145 million” has been recorded so far, according to data from Savills, which says it demonstrates the resilience of the UK housing market.

A mild 1% drop to 2023 is now expected – in this respect, some useful data can be found here.

In big cities where Inveztments is heavily involved in new development projects, such as Manchester and Liverpool, trends remain structurally favourable on several fronts – for more evidence, please click here. Of course, some underlying data is mixed on a monthly basis across the country, but seasonality often renders very short-term trends highly volatile and less reliable than others.

Research published by PriceWaterhouseCoopers this year noted that under a base-case scenario, a further softening of house price growth to around 3% in 2018 was expected to continue at a similar average rate to 2025. This implies that the average UK house price would rise from £221,000 in 2017 to around £285,000 by 2025.

“Price growth at this pace would mean that the ratio of house prices to earnings would remain broadly stable, but still at high levels by historical standards,” it added.

As The Irish Times wrote, most property experts predict steady but unspectacular property growth in 2019, as lending rules and higher stock levels help slow house price inflation. Sherry FitzGerald chief economist Marian Finnegan argued that transaction activity improved marginally during 2018; however, “this expansion has been driven almost entirely by the new homes market”.

“The latest data from the Residential Property Price Register reveals that about 23,300 single transactions were recorded during the first half of 2018,” she said, adding “this represents a 5% increase on the same period in 2017.

“Notably, almost 4,300 new homes transacted in the first six months of the year, a 31% increase year-on-year. Sales activity in the established or second-hand market was much more subdued, with about 19,000 sales representing just a 1% rise.”

Action… and Happy Holidays!

We remind you that the flagship projects managed by the team of Inveztments – click here, here and here – have received a strong response from the market, and we would be glad to help you find the property investment that suits your risk/reward profile.

We wish you and your loved ones happy New Year and a fantastic holiday season!

(This post was written by Alessandro Pasetti. Ale is the founder of Hedging Beta Ltd. He writes about investment strategy and assets valuation for European clients as well as Seeking Alpha, The Loadstar, Transport Intelligence and others. Based in London, he previously worked for about five years at Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal, producing analysis for the IB community. Prior to that, he contributed to the launch of London-based Loan Radar, where he worked for three years. He had stints in equity research at Bear Stearns in London, HVB in Munich, and Unicredit in Milan.

It was edited by Gavin van Marle, managing editor of London-based The Loadstar. Gavin is also the author of the book Around the World in Freighty Ways: Adventures in Globalisation. He has won numerous awards, including the Seahorse Journalist of the Year 2011 and 2009, and Supply Chain Journalist of the Year 2010 and 2014.)

On The Threshold: Liverpool & Manchester building on the foundations of history

By Alessandro Pasetti, 31 May

The high turnover of the real estate portfolio of Inveztments testifies to the quality of the projects that have been marketed by its team in the past year.
But what’s the secret sauce?
In a nutshell, the ultimate choice between picking multiple real estate investments/projects and only the best projects/property investment available on the market always leans towards the latter.

Coming soon

As new investment opportunities are about to be announced – full details of three outstanding UK-based developments will be released shortly – Invezments managing directors continue to witness strong market appetite outside London. It is easy to argue that Liverpool and Manchester, in particular, continue to thrive is deeply rooted in their past achievements as well as in their reputation and bright prospects, regardless of the risk posed by Brexit.

To sum up where the portfolio stands, sold-out projects in the residential segment include:

– Salisbury Place, Liverpool

– Halifax House, Liverpool

– Downtown, Manchester

– Sir Thomas, Liverpool (pictured below)

– Reliance House, Liverpool

Attractive yields and strategic locations contributed to the success of most of these property deals, while student accommodation, another buoyant segment, also shone.

The projects that easily gathered interest were:

– Orme House, Newcastle-Under-Lyme

– Oakwood House, Sheffield

– Beaumont Square, Plymouth

– Phoenix Place, Liverpool

– QStudios, Stoke (pictured below)

Ancillary business

Outside the core competencies of the team, the hotels space also proved attractive. Eden Country (Cumbria), Afan’s land plots (Wales), Wyncliffe House (Wales, Fishguard), The Harland (Scarborough) and The Atlantic Bay (Woolacombe) are all sold out.

Clearly, market appetite spanned several cities, including Leeds and Sheffield, but Liverpool and Manchester remained the top performers.

If you want to know more about the competitive landscape and outlook there, it could be worth spending some time reading this research published earlier this year by Knight Frank, which also contains very useful data on the commercial property landscape and the development pipeline.

What is still available?

Focus is mainly on the residential segment, with the existing portfolio comprising:

– Fabric, Liverpool (please contact the team directly)

– 8 Water Street, Liverpool (please contact the team directly)

– Infinity Waters, Liverpool (this promises to be a gem; pictured below)

– Oxygen, Manchester

– North House, Liverpool

– Whitehall Road, Leeds

– Grapnel House, Manchester

As far student accommodation investments are concerned, One Islington Plaza (Liverpool) has recently gone, but elsewhere Afan Valley Resort (Wales, hotels) remains available, requiring different levels of commitment and returns.

Aside from the economics that each deal offers, which can be privately discussed with the team, we highlight below some news reports that should help you understand what kind of investment you might be undertaking, if you are not familiar with the history of either city.

Firstly, Liverpool.

1 of 3: Liverpool to Manchester railway: the first railway line to open in Britain

According to the BBC “the Liverpool to Manchester Railway, completed in 1830, was the first successful railway line to open in Britain”.

Why?

– It proved that a cheaper and more efficient alternative to canals was now available

– It was the first commercial railway line designed to carry paying passengers as well as cargo

– It made the trade and transportation of raw, heavy and bulky materials between Liverpool and Manchester easier

– It allowed fresh dairy and agricultural produce from rural Lancashire to be delivered to towns and cities

– It was a financial success and people suddenly realised that railways could provide huge profits

Over a decade ago, The Telegraph also noted that it “was the first successful passenger-carrying railway in the world. Trials for Stephenson’s Rocket were carried out at Rainhill in 1829.”

Liverpool to Manchester railway (Source: World on Trains)

2 of 3: The Queensway Tunnel … cutting-edge mobility

“On the 18th July 1934, over 200,000 people gathered at the Old Haymarket to watch King George V and Queen Mary, officially open the Queensway tunnel,” the BBC explains.

“Amongst those chosen to welcome the Royal party were Lord Mayor Councillor John Strong, Sir Thomas White, Chair of the Joint Tunnel Committee, Lord Sefton and Chief Constable A.K. Wilson. Liverpool City Police Band provided the music.”

The Queensway Tunnel (Source: Gutted Arcade of the Past)

3 of 3: Liverpool Streets

“The streets of Liverpool are fascinating, starting with the very early ones in the centre of the city – or borough as we should call it, because Liverpool wasn’t a city until the 1880s. Prior to that it was a town and a borough, the medieval borough was of course founded by King John in 1207, and the king’s representative, a bailiff or someone similar, laid out the first original streets of Liverpool – and those are still important thoroughfares…Chapel Street, Bank Street (now Water Street), Castle Street, Dale Street, Tithebarn Street (formerly Moore street) and Juggler Street (High Street).”

(Source: BBC, link here)

Water Street (Source: Streets of Liverpool)

“In addition to granting it a royal charter, King John designed Liverpool’s original street plan of seven streets laid out in a ‘H’ shape.”

(Source: Traveling with the Jones, click here for more details.)

Enter Manchester.

1 of 5: Great minds

Did you know that the atom was first split in Manchester?

“There are few discoveries in science that can be said to have changed the world but one must surely be the ‘splitting of the atom’ by Ernest Rutherford in Manchester.”

(Source: BBC, click here to read the full article.)

2 of 5: University of Manchester

You have heard about the first programmable computer, haven’t you?

“On June 21, 1948, shortly after 11am, the Small Scale Experimental Machine (SSEM) – nicknamed The Baby – executed its first program. The Baby changed the world and was the forerunner of all modern computers, iPods, mobile phones and other gadgets we take for granted today.”

(Source: The University of Manchester, click here for more details.)

Baby — The first programmable computer (Source: YouTube)

3 of 5: 25 Nobel Prize winners

“The University of Manchester has a rich academic history. We can lay claim to 25 Nobel laureates among our current and former staff and students.”

(Source: The University of Manchester, more here.)

Sir Joseph John Thomson was an English physicist and Nobel Laureate in Physics, credited with the discovery and identification of the electron (Source: ThoughtCo)

4 of 5: Chetham’s library: the oldest public library in Britain

“It’s the oldest public library in Britain, and is home to more than 120,000 books, maps and manuscripts, some dating back as far as the 13th century.”

(Source: Manchester Evening News, to learn more about this topic please click here.)

The Chetham’s library (Source: Trip Advisor)

5 of 5: Finally… it is listed among the 10 world’s greatest cities in 2018!

“After a tough 2017, locals said that the best thing about Manchester is that ‘We carry on, no matter what.’ It’s also the place with the most people who can’t get through the day without a cuppa, while its great drinking scene, live music and friendliness saw it end up ranked seventh,” TimeOut wrote earlier this year.

The most exciting cities in the world (Source: Time Out)

(This post was written by Alessandro Pasetti. Ale is the founder of Hedging Beta Ltd. He writes about investment strategy and assets valuation for European clients as well as Seeking Alpha, The Loadstar, Transport Intelligence and others. Based in London, he previously worked for about five years at Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal, producing analysis for the IB community. Prior to that, he contributed to the launch of London-based Loan Radar, where he worked for three years. He had stints in equity research at Bear Stearns in London, HVB in Munich, and Unicredit in Milan.

It was edited by Gavin van Marle, managing editor of London-based The Loadstar. Gavin is also the author of the book Around the World in Freighty Ways: Adventures in Globalisation. He has won numerous awards, including the Seahorse Journalist of the Year 2011 and 2009, and Supply Chain Journalist of the Year 2010 and 2014. )

 

On The Threshold: Opportunities shrouded amidst the risks of British mists

By Alessandro Pasetti, 17 January 2018.

Inveztments’ managing directors are looking forward to another very rewarding year that promises to be eventful for the company they lead. This week they shared with me their vision, discussing why and how their efforts are going to pay dividends, whether or not certain risks that weigh on the UK’s political landscape will play out as bears expect them to.  

(Source: Pinterest)

A Pivotal Year 

“Firstly, I wish each and every new and old follower, client and investor a great 2018, which already got off to a great start for us,” co-founder Elisa Vezzani recently told me. The usual politeness of her words was reassuring, as well as the commitment to sharing her knowledge and excitement for real estate opportunities.  

(To learn more about Elisa Vezzani, MD and co-founder of Inveztments, please click here.)

“We are incredibly focused – looking closely at two sub-sectors that will deliver awesome returns for years to come.” 

Her husband and business partner, Tonino Montesanti, added: “We had six new clients lined up over the Christmas break, and we’ll have more coming soon given our fresh pipeline of projects in the residential and student accommodation fields.” 

(To learn more about Tonino Montesanti, MD and co-founder of Inveztments, please click here.)

“The question now is how swiftly we’ll grow in what we consider to be a pivotal year for our business.” 

Break, what break? 

Their Christmas break spanned Italy, Spain and the UK, where their attention was devoted to residential properties and student accommodation rather than other niches in the marketplace, as well as to meetings with clients and striking deals. 

Three projects that recently launched captured their attention, and belong to their portfolio – click here and here to discover the full details of two flagship developments and, always, please do not hesitate to get in touch with the Inveztments Team to find out more about projects that are not advertised on the corporate website.

Consider that two of the new developments require investments of £62,995 and £124,000 – offering net yields of 8% and 7% respectively – so the initial commitment and all-in returns vary depending on the project you choose. But be quick, and do not be shy picking up the phone to talk to Elisa and Tonino.

An excerpt follows.

“There will be some changes this as year as we plan to build closer relationships with our investors and partners, thus the decision not to advertise all our property package on the web as well as the intention to spend even more time on the ground with the developers, producing videos and even more research material for our international clients,” Elisa told me.  

But how are these segments faring?  

Residential and student accommodation in the UK top the list of likely best performers due to a scarcity of residential properties and ongoing high demand for student beds, while Brexit risk so far plays only a minor role in determining market trends for these two niches.  

If you want to know more about trends in the student accommodation market, you are advised to read the following stories:

Property Reporter (PR), a reliable source of real estate information, recently echoed other market reports, noting that “while the media have rightly observed that the upper end of the London market cooled off slightly in 2017, it is important to remember that the UK property market is not a monolith.”  

“Northern cities such as Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Birmingham continued to perform extremely well last year, offering investors fantastic yields and capital growth.” 

Hamish Pound, investment manager at IP Global, told PR he believes “that we will not see the kind of ‘black swan’ event that many commentators believe will derail the residential market.”

He added: “Some anticipate that fallout from the ongoing Brexit negotiations will severely dampen the market – but this is now looking increasingly unlikely.”

As far as Brexit in concerned, he concluded that the “reality is that any deal or lack thereof is unlikely to alter the market’s strong fundamentals, or lead to a seismic reduction in demand for accommodation”, and I would agree with such a bullish stance, which reinforces the view that there are hotspots appealing to investors looking for a balanced capital allocation, and one which boasts a solid profile in terms of investment liquidity.  

As a reminder, look at how much a residential investment was worth across the UK in 2005, just a couple of year before the Great Crisis…

(Source: ONS)

… and then compare England’s figures with the latest official data published by the Office for National Statistics.

(Source: ONS)

Even London, with its “troubles”, remains one of the most liquid markets worldwide in the highly risky commercial property arena, according to recent research highlighted in the table below. 

(Source: CBRE)

Of course, we have sighted house prices for the final quarter of the year, and the recent “retracement” was not unexpected for those who closely follow the market — we had surely anticipated the possibility of sellers trying to cash in, even at lower prices. Seasonality plays a part in market negotiations, and that is often a misunderstood element in the equation because it represents the multiplier that could boost all-in returns and capital appreciation, or hamper them if the time of the sale is not right.

If you want to know more about how to manage risk and the full details of the latest projects, please contact the team here.

(This post was written by Alessandro Pasetti. Ale is the founder of Hedging Beta Ltd. He writes about investment strategy and assets valuation for European clients as well as Seeking Alpha. Based in London, he previously worked for about five years at Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal, producing analysis for the IB community. Prior to that, he contributed to the launch of London-based Loan Radar, where he worked for three years. He had stints in equity research at Bear Stearns in London, HVB in Munich, and Unicredit in Milan. 

It was edited by Gavin van Marle, managing editor of London-based The Loadstar. Gavin is also the author of the book Around the World in Freighty Ways: Adventures in Globalisation. He has won numerous awards, including the Seahorse Journalist of the Year 2011 and 2009, and Supply Chain Journalist of the Year 2010 and 2014. )

 

Manchester

Downtown Residential Property
Estimated Rental Returns: 6%
Phase 1 Completion: Q4 2018 – Block D / E / F — SOLD OUT
Phase 2 Completion: Q4 2019 – Block A / B / C — SOLD OUT
Located In An Extremely Strong Rental Market

Full Details About Downtown

On The Threshold: Investing In Manchester Is A No-Brainer

By Alessandro Pasetti, September 2017.

The Brexit debate has led some analysts and economists to suggest this week that a slim chance remains that Brexit may not happen after all – but frankly, who cares if you are after a sound property deal in the UK 

Scepticism — let alone populism — abounds when it comes to investing in the UK these days, yet Inveztments continues to garner appetite for real estate investment in Northern England, where finished properties and developments alike are faring far better than the rest of the country in terms of the net returns they offer investors. 

A new north/south divide, flipping the traditional economic strength of the south on its head has emerged, as the chart below shows, and not only in the buy-to-let market.

(Source: thisismoney.co.uk)

Having recently agreed a sizeable property sale in Liverpool — a “rental crown jewel,” as we defined it in our previous coverage — the executive team of Inveztments now expects increasing interest for property development deals in Manchester, widely considered the UK’s second city, after London. 

Need oxygen after Brexit? Read on…

The team is promoting three rather different projects size-wise, spearheaded by “Oxygen” — a 31 storey neighbourhood located in the city’s emerging Piccadilly Basin district.  

The development requires some serious commitment, but the numbers are enticing.

(If you want to know more about the average ticket size, please contact the Inveztments team here. The full brochure and other supporting material is available on request.)

“Home to 12 luxury family townhouses at ground level, 345 one, two and three bedroom apartments above and basement car parking below, Oxygen sets a new benchmark in five star city living,” claims the promotional material we saw. 

“Half of it is already sold and a 7% yield is the inevitable result of a deal that provides safety and reassurance to all kinds of investors,” managing director Tonino Montesanti told me this week.  

Several headlines recently highlighted in the news widget of the Inveztmentswebsite home page — such as “London Buy-To-Let Investors Look North To Manchester”; “How To Win On Manchester’s Booming Property Market”; and “Northern Powerhouse Fires Up As House Prices In Manchester Rise Faster Than Any Other UK City” — point to little downside risk, if any.

Trends

Macroeconomic trends indicate that Manchester could be the right place to bet on robust and rising demand for office space and increasingly higher returns from other real estate investments.

Not only did the economy of this thriving city outstrip the UK’s domestic growth rate by about one percentage point in 2016, but demand for commercial real estate market from foreign investors is not going to diminish anytime soon, due to the persistent weakness in the British pound, which makes sterling-denominated assets more appealing for long-term investors in the residential arena.  

Inevitably, residential properties as well as hotel and student accommodation opportunities are set to benefit from these benign trends that look set to stay for some time.

While there is a feeling at times and in certain areas that Manchester might be a bit overbuilt, Mr Montesanti disagrees: “Actually, I say demand for real estate stuff is strong both from investors and tenants.

Direct exposure

“Of course, we are wary of the risks and we advise our clients accordingly.”

“We directly invested in the 8 Water Street development in Liverpool last year, and key collection was well before the deadline — trends are solid in the North, and we have already recorded double-digit paper gains in less than one year. So, the next stop could well be Manchester.”

A smaller project, “Downtown“, of which more details will be soon disclosed on the Inveztments‘ website — also offers attractive yields and alluring features.

For future prospects it is worth considering that the company has a partnership in place with a major local broker that deals directly with all the main developers in Manchester. “If we are not there, our clients will deal directly with our broker, who acts on behalf of Inveztments,” Mr Montesanti concluded.

To learn more about all these developments and more, please contact our team here 

(This post was written by Alessandro Pasetti. Ale is the founder of Hedging Beta Ltd. He writes about investment strategy and assets valuation for European clients as well as Seeking Alpha. Based in London, he previously worked for about five years at Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal, producing analysis for the IB community. Prior to that, he contributed to the launch of London-based Loan Radar, where he worked for three years. He had stints in equity research at Bear Stearns in London, HVB in Munich, and Unicredit in Milan.

It was edited by Gavin van Marle, managing editor of London-based The Loadstar. Gavin is also the author of the book Around the World in Freighty Ways: Adventures in Globalisation. He has won numerous awards, including the Seahorse Journalist of the Year 2011 and 2009, and Supply Chain Journalist of the Year 2010 and 2014. )